Does sacking the coach work?

Bundesliga sack-o-meter

Track record: would it have seen them coming?

Every season

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How the sack-o-meter works, and how good it is

Most of the "new coach bounce" happens anyway

Match by match: points before and after a mid-season sacking

Teams that sacked their coach (band: 95% interval) Expected anyway, from similar teams that kept theirs

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Every mid-season sacking vs. teams in the same spot that kept their coach

Sacked their coach mid-season Kept their coach (average)
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What's left after adjusting

Effect beyond expectation, with 95% interval (teams resampled)

Beat or missed expectations the most

PPG change over the next matches minus what was expected anyway

Compared with published research

Effect of a mid-season sacking on points per game, by study design

Mid-season changes, 95% intervals. Hover a row for details.

Bundesliga match forecasts, measured against the betting market

How far from base rates to the betting market

Calibration

On the diagonal = a 40% forecast happens 40% of the time

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Next matchday

Home win Draw Away win

Bundesliga formation matchups

Points per game for the team on the left, against the opponent formation on top

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